Good morning. Some news: Belgian authorities have opened a criminal investigation into a Flemish far-right politician who we revealed last month had been used for years as a Chinese intelligence asset.

Today, we explain the political chaos in Poland and its impact on Brussels, and Egypt’s ambassador to the EU tells us what Cairo wants from a proposed economic support package from Brussels.

Polish pandemonium

Poland’s explosive politics rippled through Brussels yesterday as the constitutional struggle between new Prime Minister Donald Tusk and long-term President Andrzej Duda took another twist, with billions of euros of frozen EU funds also at stake, write Andy Bounds and Raphael Minder.

Context: Duda, who was a nominee of the previous ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, is fighting for the release of two PiS MPs who were sentenced to prison last month, but who earlier this week sought shelter in Duda’s presidential palace. Duda claims police should never have dragged the pair from his palace to prison, because he had granted them a pardon in 2015.

PiS is a member of the ECR group in the European parliament, which has escalated the issue to the EU level. “The dignity of the institution of the president of an EU member state has been blatantly violated, defying its constitution and damaging democracy,” ECR said yesterday.

PiS is, ironically, trying to turn the tables on Tusk over Poland’s rule of law. The party is organising a street protest in Warsaw today to defend the constitution against Tusk’s alleged attacks, after years of PiS itself being accused by Brussels and Tusk of destroying the rule of law.

Having previously ignored demands from Brussels and rulings from the European Court of Justice, PiS now wants the EU to step in and help block Tusk’s reforms, as well as prevent its MPs from going to jail. 

“I ask the representatives of international organisations — especially the institutions of the European Union — to take an unequivocal stand on this appalling turn of events,” former PiS prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said yesterday.

But Andrzej Halicki, head of the delegation of Tusk’s Civic Platform to the European parliament, told the FT that the PiS claims were unfounded. “They are not political prisoners. They are guilty. We have to rebuild justice [in Poland].”

Halicki, who like many Poles is glued to rolling news from his homeland, which he watches on a giant TV in his office, predicted that Tusk’s government would soon enact laws to meet some of Brussels’ conditions to release Poland’s frozen EU money.

It would be “political suicide” for Duda to veto them and delay the disbursement of funding, he said.

Chart du jour: Turning off the tap

The EU has progressively weaned itself off Russian gas in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. EU imports of Russian LNG dropped slightly last year, boosting confidence that the bloc can finally rid itself of Moscow’s fuel altogether.

Cash point

Negotiations between Egypt and the EU for additional economic support are picking up steam ahead of a joint meeting at the end of January, write Laura Dubois and Paola Tamma.

Context: Brussels and Cairo have been in talks for months regarding a comprehensive package of economic support for Egypt’s ailing economy. Migration is also part of this, as European countries are nervous that recent coups and conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa could force more people to flee the region. Egypt already hosts about 9mn migrants.

The EU has committed to paying €160mn to support refugees and border management until 2027, but that’s not enough for Cairo.

“There is ongoing co-operation with the EU on migration but we are not satisfied with the current scale of financial support in light of the burden,” Egypt’s ambassador to the EU, Badr Abdelatty, told the FT.

The war in neighbouring Gaza was also a cause of concern. Abdelatty said that Egypt would not accept refugees from Gaza as part of a deal, which constituted a “red line” for Cairo.

But migration is only a small part of the negotiations.

“We need an upgrade of overall relations, including developmental assistance. This should include economic support, investment guarantees, technology transfer, jobs, and food security,” Abdelatty said.

Egypt has been particularly affected by rising food prices following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a major grain exporter, and reduced revenues from tourism and the Suez Canal have piled on to those worries.

“The economy is suffering under the Ukraine crisis, from Covid, and the situation in Gaza,” Abdelatty said.

An association council between Egypt and the EU is to take place on January 23, according to officials.

But don’t expect any new aid announcements until the EU has sorted out its own budget woes — and decided how much more money it can spare for migration — at the next leaders’ summit on February 1.

What to watch today

1. German economy minister Robert Habeck meets officials in Israel and Palestine.

2. EU employment and social affairs ministers meet.

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