Rishi Sunak used the word “change” 30 times in his speech to the Conservative party conference last month, as he vowed to break from the failures of the past and the “30-year status quo”.
The sight of former premier David Cameron walking up Downing Street on Monday to take the post of foreign secretary in Sunak’s revamped government was not the “change” that many had expected.
“It’s just incredible,” said one former cabinet minister, as Tory MPs tried to work out Sunak’s political strategy and how exactly exhuming the career of a politically damaged centrist ex-prime minister fitted into it.
“A few weeks ago, Rishi Sunak said David Cameron was part of a failed status quo, now he’s bringing him back as his life raft,” said Pat McFadden, Labour’s election campaign chief.
Not only does the choice of the moderate Cameron fly in the face of Sunak’s attempt to portray himself as “the change candidate” and distance himself from his party’s troubled past, it also stores up trouble with the Tory right.
Cameron’s appointment, and the sacking of Suella Braverman as home secretary, are signs Sunak is shifting towards the centre ground, increasing tensions in his already fractious party.
Sunak arrived in Downing Street in October 2022 after striking a deal with the right of his party. His decision to appoint Braverman as his first home secretary was part of a deal that saw her back his leadership bid. That pact is now in tatters.
Braverman’s comments in recent months have alarmed Tory MPs representing middle-class southern seats, whether talking about the “hurricane” of mass migration, claiming that rough sleepers were making a “lifestyle choice” or branding pro-Palestinian demonstrations “hate marches”.
Sunak’s decision to move the soothing figure of James Cleverly from the Foreign Office to the Home Office is in effect an admission by Sunak that Braverman’s abrasive approach was becoming a liability.
The reshuffle is seen by Tory MPs as a sign of a new Sunak approach to fighting the next election, just weeks after he attempted a political reset at his party conference.
“He’s not moving us to the centre, he’s moving to the left,” said one pro-Brexit former minister, surveying the line-up of the reshuffled team.
In an effort to counter such narratives, Sunak brought back rightwinger Esther McVey, a former pensions secretary, to a front bench role attending Cabinet as minister without portfolio at the Cabinet Office.
Sunak’s allies said Cameron would bring experience and stability to the top of government at a time of grave international crisis. William Hague, former foreign secretary and a confidant of Sunak, is said by senior Tory MPs to have played a pivotal role in the appointment.
For many mainstream Conservatives, the change of Sunak’s top team and the return of Cameron represents a welcome break from Sunak’s apparent attempt to brand his leadership as a “year zero” for the party.
One veteran former Tory minister said: “I think the most significant thing is the dumping of the misconceived running against all previous Conservative administrations for the last 30 years.”
For the Tory right, their alarm was summed up by Simon Clarke, a former cabinet minister, who said on the social media site X: “Some controversial choices here from the manager, putting it very mildly. Never wise to lack options on the right wing — the squad risks being badly unbalanced.”
As Sunak braces for a fight on his right flank, Downing Street insiders believe Braverman’s support among MPs is more shallow than she might expect.
But the fact that her allies have branded Sunak’s team as “clowns” in the past 24 hours suggests she will not go quietly. On Monday, Braverman said she would “have more to say in due course”.
A big test for Sunak and his new home secretary will come on Wednesday when the Supreme Court rules on whether the government’s flagship policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda is legal.
If the government loses, Braverman and other MPs on the Tory right are likely to step up calls for Britain to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, an idea that Cleverly has previously publicly denounced.
Speaking in April, Cleverly recoiled from the idea of the UK joining Belarus and Russia as the only European countries outside the ECHR. “I am not convinced it is a club we want to be part of,” he said.
One rightwing former cabinet minister said of Sunak’s decision to fire his home secretary: “Why move Suella before the Supreme Court judgment unless he’s not up for a fight over the ECHR if we lose?”
Video: Sketchy Politics: mapping the next election | FT