How can Wales qualify for Euro 2024?

One result can change the picture completely.

Had Wales lost to Croatia last month, they would have been out of the race to qualify automatically for Euro 2024.

And even with a back door to the play-offs in March, the pressure that was already building on manager Robert Page would only have increased.

But following an historic victory at the Cardiff City Stadium, the tournament in Germany next summer is within realistic reach once again.

So what exactly do Wales need during the November games to complete the task?

The good news is that it’s in their hands – win their last two games, and they qualify for Euro 2024 regardless.

It’s a scenario Wales have already faced twice in recent years. In 2017 they secured a 1-0 win in Georgia, but then faltered 1-0 at home to the Republic of Ireland to end their World Cup 2018 hopes.

Two years later another away victory in the Caucasus region, this time against Azerbaijan, was followed by a 2-0 triumph over Hungary in Cardiff to seal a place at Euro 2020.

The latest attempt to replicate 2019’s double header delight sees Rob Page’s side travel to Armenia on 18 November, before welcoming Turkey to Cardiff on 21 November.

Wales currently sit level with Croatia on 10 points, while Armenia are on 7. Turkey, with 16, have already qualified.

Because the table is decided firstly on head-to-head records, rather than goal difference, Wales therefore know that equalling Croatia’s points total should be enough.

But if Wales stumble in either of their games, Croatia would overtake them by beating Latvia and Armenia.

On paper, Wales’ fixtures look tougher. Armenia have already tasted victory in Cardiff, while Turkey top the table.

But with fresh belief in the squad following last month’s win, Wales go into both their final games as marginal favourites.

It may also work in their favour that Armenia need to win their final two games to keep their own Euro hopes alive, meaning that they’re unlikely to settle for a draw – while Turkey now have little to play for.

Wales’ game in Armenia kicks off earlier on Saturday, meaning Croatia will already know the state of play by the time they face Latvia later that evening.

Depending on the results of the two Saturday matches, the table below then shows what Wales would need on Tuesday evening, when they host Turkey while Croatia face Armenia.

David Brooks and Harry Wilson celebrate Wales' win over Croatia - graphic with table

If Wales don’t finish in the top two positions, they are still virtually guaranteed a play-off place in March.

But they would be in a play-off ‘path’ of four teams, where only one qualifies – similar to the route in which they had to beat Austria and Ukraine to reach the 2022 World Cup.

Those potential opponents are not yet confirmed and will depend on results in the other qualifying groups.

At least one fellow team from Nations League A would definitely join Wales’ play-off path – either Poland or the Czech Republic.

One of the easier combinations on paper could then involve countries such as Estonia and Iceland.

But there are other Nations League A teams who could still drop into that play-off path if they stumble this week, including Italy and Switzerland.

Given that scenario, Wales’ best chance of qualification is simply be to beat Armenia and Turkey – which would mean no more head-scratching over possible permutations!